• A. 天氣資訊
• B. 天文資訊
• C. 熱帶氣旋
• D. 本站活動
• E. 其他資訊
• F. 搜尋本站

主頁 現時生效警告 分區天氣 雨量 紫外線指數 華南海域天氣報告 香港天氣預測 天氣照片 天氣圖 衛星 / 雷達圖像 華南天氣要素圖

香港天文資料 世界時間 世界各大城市太陽資訊 特別天文事件 日食日期和數字 月食日期和數字 日月食問與答 日食計算機

最新熱帶氣旋資訊 天文台之熱帶氣旋資訊 官方熱帶氣旋路徑資料 熱帶氣旋信號機率 各站預測路徑圖 熱帶氣旋資料庫 熱帶氣旋尋找工具 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 影響香港氣旋之風速數據 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 西北太平洋: ASCAT 風場圖 西北太平洋: 風 / 分析 西北太平洋: 駛流圖 參考資料: 熱帶氣旋名稱 參考資料: 蒲福氏風級 參考資料: 熱帶氣旋分類 參考資料: 熱帶氣旋發佈機制 有關熱帶氣旋之連結

實時天氣資訊圖 本站選舉 * 一觸即發遊戲 * 月氣候展望比賽

其他氣象連結 合作網站 關於我們 本站聲明 * 網誌 "望天打卦"

TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 202305W (DOKSURI 杜蘇芮) [Refresh 更新]

202305W (DOKSURI 杜蘇芮) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on August 12, 2023, final version issued on November 25, 2023)
(初稿於 2023 年 8 月 12 日發出，最後版本於 2023 年 11 月 25 日上載)

Brief profile of DOKSURI | 杜蘇芮小檔案:

^Refers to the period between the HK Observatory's first and last bulletins for the tropical cyclone (with at least tropical depression intensity). For storms formed/dissipated/transformed into an extratropical cyclone outside the area bounded by 7-36°N and 100-140°E, information from the JTWC will be used instead.
^即香港天文台為該熱帶氣旋 (熱帶低氣壓級或更高) 作出發佈的時期。至於在北緯 7 至 36 度、東經 100 至 140 度外形成／消散／轉化為溫帶氣旋的風暴，本網將參考聯合颱風警報中心的資料。

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2023/07/26 (WED) 20:40 HKT	ESE 720 km	NW/NNW at 12 km/h	185 km/h (100 knots, SuT)
	2023/07/28 (FRI) 12:40 HKT	NE 540 km	NNW at 28 km/h	165 km/h (90 knots, ST)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track(s) from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

The development of DOKSURI was anticipated by numerical models days before its formation, with a track that would bring it to southeastern China. On July 20, the JMA issued a gale warning to tropical disturbance 98W developing in the northwest Pacific east of the Philippines, which was moving northwards due to the subtropical ridge to its east. As the convective area expanded that day, the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert early on July 21. Later in the morning, the JMA upgraded 98W into a tropical storm, and named it DOKSURI. By this time, the subtropical ridge had developed to the north of the storm, and was expected to guide it westwards. It was later forecast to weaken, allowing a more northwesterly motion. Most official agencies initially predicted a landfall at Taiwan, and shifted their forecast tracks westwards gradually.

DOKSURI initially suffered from moderate vertical wind shear and the lack of upper-level divergence due to the broad subtropical ridge to its north. However, the shear level reduced the next day and the storm was able to pick up strength, although convections were still lacking in its northern side. DOKSURI intensified into a severe tropical storm on July 23 as it travelled westwards.

Later that day, DOKSURI developed a banding eye and started to decelerate as the ridge weakened. Various official agencies upgraded the storm into typhoon status, now predicting it to cross the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Strait towards southern Fujian. As DOKSURI's outflow channels improved, it experienced a period of rapid intensification on July 24. A deep central dense overcast developed and its eye became clear during the day. The JTWC upgraded DOKSURI into a 130-knot (241 km/h) super typhoon in its 2 am bulletin on July 25. The HKO also upgraded DOKSURI to super typhoon status at that time.

DOKSURI moved northwest on July 24 and 25. On July 26, its track deflected westwards due to land interaction with the Luzon terrain. It moved very close to and crossed several islands near the Balintang Channel, and made an anticlockwise loop in the morning. DOKSURI's intensity dropped in the process, with its eye becoming cloud-filled and smaller in size.

During the afternoon of July 26, DOKSURI picked up speed and moved northwest to north-northwest, crossing the Luzon Strait. The subtropical ridge originally north of DOKSURI was heavily weakened by a passing mid-latitude trough, and the storm was able to maintain its north-northwesterly motion in northeastern South China Sea. The storm's motion was somewhat irregular on July 27 as its eye restructured.

Having been downgraded into a severe typhoon earlier, DOKSURI regained super typhoon status by the HKO and NMC as an eye reappeared at the centre of a much smaller central dense overcast in the night of July 27. It moved almost due north and accelerated on July 28, making landfall near Jinjiang in southern Fujian just before 10 am. DOKSURI weakened quickly into a tropical storm later that night, and further into an area of low pressure in central China on July 29.

The remnants of DOKSURI continued to travel northwards, resulting in extreme precipitation in northern China that weekend and into early August. The Beijing and Tianjin area, together with nearby provinces such as Hebei and Shanxi, experienced the most serious episode of heavy rain in 11 years. The rainfall received in the Beijing area was the highest since records began 140 years ago.

數值模式普遍於杜蘇芮形成前多天已預測其發展，並預料風暴會趨向中國東南部。7 月 20 日，日本氣象廳對位於菲律賓以東的西北太平洋之熱帶擾動 98W 發出烈風警告，當時 98W 正受東面的副熱帶高壓脊影響而向北移動。98W 的對流範圍當天有所擴大，聯合颱風警報中心於 21 日早段發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。當天早上，日本氣象廳將 98W 升格為熱帶風暴，並命名為杜蘇芮。此時副熱帶高壓脊已於風暴以北發展，並引領風暴向西移動。該脊預料稍後會減弱，令風暴採取較為西北的路徑。官方氣象機構起初普遍預料風暴會登陸台灣，但其後逐漸將預測西調。

杜蘇芮初時受中等垂直風切變影響，而且廣闊副熱帶高壓脊覆蓋風暴以北，其高空輻散通道受到限制。可是，隨著翌日風切變水平下降，風暴終能逐漸增強，但北面的對流仍然較為稀疏。杜蘇芮於 7 月 23 日繼續西移，並增強為強烈熱帶風暴。

當天較後時間，杜蘇芮發展出一雲捲風眼，而高壓脊開始減弱並令風暴減速。各官方機構相繼將杜蘇芮升格為颱風，並預料它將通過呂宋海峽及台灣海峽，趨向福建南部。隨著杜蘇芮的輻散通道改善，它於 7 月 24 日一度快速增強；風暴發展出一深厚中心密集雲區，其風眼當天漸轉清晰。聯合颱風警報中心於 25 日上午 2 時的發佈中將杜蘇芮升格為超級颱風，估計風力達 130 節 (每小時 241 公里)。天文台亦於此時將杜蘇芮升格為超強颱風。

杜蘇芮於 7 月 24 及 25 日向西北移動。至 26 日，風暴受呂宋地形影響，其路徑出現西偏。杜蘇芮早上靠近甚至橫過巴林坦海峽一帶部分島嶼，並以逆時針方向打轉，期間強度有所下降，風眼被雲層覆蓋並有所縮小。

7 月 26 日下午，杜蘇芮開始加速並向西北至西北偏北移動，橫過呂宋海峽。原先於杜蘇芮以北的副熱帶高壓脊受西風槽影響而大幅減弱，風暴於南海東北部得以繼續向西北偏北移動。由於杜蘇芮的風眼有所重組，27 日其路徑較不規則。

先前氣象機構曾將杜蘇芮的強度下降至強颱風；隨著風暴於 7 月 27 日晚發展出一較為細小的中心密集雲區並內嵌風眼，香港天文台及中國中央氣象台均將其重新升格為超強颱風。風暴於 28 日加速並幾乎向正北移動，於上午 10 時前登陸福建南部的晉江市。杜蘇芮當晚快速減弱為熱帶風暴，並於 29 日在華中減弱為低壓區。

杜蘇芮的殘餘雲帶繼續北移，並於周末及 8 月初為華北帶來極端降雨。北京、天津及鄰近省份如河北、山西等經歷 11 年來最嚴重的水災，而北京一帶所錄得的雨量是自 140 年前有記錄以來最高。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 26/7 ● 27/7 ● 28/7
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結：26/7 ● 27/7 ● 28/7

Because of the significant divergence in numerical model forecasts on DOKSURI's track and the ECMWF's persistent forecast of a close approach to the Pearl River Estuary, the storm received some attention from the public even while TALIM, the previous cyclone, was affecting Hong Kong.

Due to the subsidence associated with DOKSURI, it was sunny and extremely hot while the storm was approaching Luzon. At around 1 pm July 25, the HKO mentioned that DOKSURI would come to within 800 km from Hong Kong the next day, and that the #1 Standby Signal would be issued later on July 26. The HKO recorded a maximum temperature of 35.5 degrees on July 26; the temperature in the New Territories generally reached 36 degrees or above that day, with a maximum of 38.8 degrees recorded at Sheung Shui. Temperatures failed to decrease significantly at night, and the HKO still recorded temperatures in excess of 33 degrees by 11 pm.

The #1 Standby Signal was issued at 8:40 pm July 26, when DOKSURI was about 720 km east-southeast of Hong Kong. It was immediately indicated that the chance of strong winds recorded generally over the territory would be relatively low, which could be regarded as an indirect way to say that the chance of higher signals was not high.

Light to moderate west to northwesterly winds prevailed on July 27. As a result, many places saw even higher temperatures than the day before. At 36.1 degrees, the HKO broke its July maximum temperature record. Temperatures at Sheung Shui, Wetland Park and Yuen Long Park reached 38 degrees. Rain and thunderstorm triggered by the extreme heat affected Hong Kong that night; most places saw a 3 to 5-degree drop in temperatures.

DOKSURI was closest to Hong Kong in the small hours of July 28, passing to the east at a distance of around 500 km. Shortly after DOKSURI made landfall in southern Fujian, the HKO cancelled the #1 Standby Signal at 12:40 pm July 28. The weather in Hong Kong deteriorated on July 29 due to the southwesterly airstream introduced by DOKSURI. A rainband swept across the territory in the morning; the Amber Rainstorm Warning was issued at 8:10 am, which was raised to the Red Warning one hour later. It was replaced by the Amber Warning again at 10:10 am, and the Amber Warning itself was cancelled at 10:40 am. The rain that morning mainly affected the New Territories, Kowloon and Lantau; rain in Hong Kong Island was generally light. The weather remained unstable that day, and the Amber Rainstorm Warning was in force again that night between 10:45 pm and 12:30 am July 30. Some places in eastern New Territories, including Tai Po and Ma On Shan, received more than 100 mm of rain on July 29.

由於數值模式預報對於杜蘇芮的路徑預測出現明顯分歧，加上歐洲中期天氣預報中心模式持續預測杜蘇芮會靠近珠江口一帶，風暴早於上一個氣旋泰利影響本港時已受市民關注。

受杜蘇芮的相關下沉氣流影響，風暴靠近呂宋時本港天晴並極端酷熱。7 月 25 日下午約 1 時，香港天文台表示杜蘇芮將於翌日進入本港 800 公里範圍，會於 26 日稍後發出一號戒備信號。26 日天文台錄得最高氣溫 35.5 度，而新界氣溫普遍逾 36 度，其中上水錄得 38.8 度高溫。當晚氣溫並未大幅下降，至下午 11 時天文台溫度仍超過 33 度。

一號戒備信號於 7 月 26 日下午 8 時 40 分發出，當時杜蘇芮位於香港東南偏東約 720 公里。信號甫發出，天文台已表示本港普遍吹強風的機會較低，可被解讀為改發更高信號機會不大。

本港於 7 月 27 日吹輕微至和緩西至西北風，不少地區氣溫較前一天更高。天文台當天錄得 36.1 度，是有記錄以來 7 月最高。上水、濕地公園及元朗公園氣溫均達 38 度。極端酷熱天氣於當晚觸發雷雨，大部分地區氣溫下降 3 至 5 度。

杜蘇芮於 7 月 28 日凌晨最接近香港，於東面約 500 公里處掠過。風暴於福建南部登陸後不久，天文台於當天下午 12 時 40 分取消一號戒備信號。由於杜蘇芮北上後引進西南氣流，本港天氣於 29 日轉差。一道雨帶於早上掃過本港，黃色暴雨警告信號於上午 8 時 10 分發出，並於一小時後升級為紅色。信號於上午 10 時 10 分再次轉為黃色，最終於上午 10 時 40 分取消。早上的降雨主要影響新界、九龍及大嶼山，而港島雨勢普遍較弱。當天天氣不穩定，黃色暴雨警告信號於下午 10 時 45 分至 30 日上午 12 時 30 分再度生效。新界部分地區如大埔及馬鞍山於 29 日錄得超過 100 毫米雨量。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - GFS (top left) and ECMWF (top right) ensemble forecasts at 8 am July 19; deterministic model forecasts at 8 am July 19 (bottom) (source: Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave, Typhoon2000)
圖 1 - 7 月 19 日上午 8 時 GFS (左上) 及 ECMWF (右上) 模式集成預報；7 月 19 日上午 8 時各數值模式確定性預報 (下) (來源：Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave, Typhoon2000)

Figure 2 - Satellite image of DOKSURI at its formation
圖 2 - 杜蘇芮形成初時之衛星雲圖

Figure 3 - Multi-agency forecast tracks at 8 am July 22 (left) and July 25 (right)
圖 3 - 7 月 22 日 (左) 及 25 日 (右) 上午 8 時各氣象機構之預測路徑圖

Figure 4 - Distribution of vertical wind shear at 8 am July 24
圖 4 - 7 月 24 日上午 8 時之垂直風切變分佈圖

Figure 5 - Steering flow chart at 8 am July 24 (top) and July 27 (bottom)
圖 5 - 7 月 24 日 (上) 及 27 日 (下) 上午 8 時之駛流場分佈圖

Figure 6 - Satellite image of DOKSURI near peak intensity
圖 6 - 杜蘇芮達到巔峰強度時之衛星雲圖

Figure 7 - Wind field analysis at 9:10 pm July 23 (left) and 10:17 am July 27 (right)
圖 7 - 7 月 23 日下午 9 時 10 分 (左) 及 27 日上午 10 時 17 分 (右) 之風場掃描

Figure 8 - Air temperature distribution in southern China at 5 pm July 26
圖 8 - 7 月 26 日下午 5 時之華南氣溫分佈圖

Figure 9 - Air temperature distribution in Macau at 10:25 pm July 26
圖 9 - 7 月 26 日下午 10 時 25 分之澳門氣溫分佈圖

Figure 10 - Air temperature time series at the HK Observatory (top) and maximum air temperature over Hong Kong (bottom) on July 27
圖 10 - 7 月 27 日香港天文台氣溫時間序列 (上) 及香港各區最高氣溫 (下)

Figure 11 - Radar image of DOKSURI at 9 pm July 27 showing its double eyewall feature
圖 11 - 7 月 27 日下午 9 時之雷達圖顯示杜蘇芮的雙重眼壁結構

Figure 12 - Rainfall distribution map for July 29
圖 12 - 7 月 29 日之雨量分佈圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table lists the maximum 10-minute average (sustained) wind speed recorded while tropical cyclone signals were in force. In some occasions, it is possible that the strongest winds were not recorded when the highest signal was in force.

下表列出各站於熱帶氣旋警告信號生效時所錄得的最高 10 分鐘平均 (持續) 風速，留意此風速不一定於最高信號生效期間錄得。

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by DOKSURI from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Sun Sep 08 2024 11:02:20 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Sat Nov 25 2023