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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 201811W (SON-TINH 山神) [Refresh 更新]

201811W (SON-TINH 山神) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on August 1, 2018; final version issued on September 9, 2018)
(初稿於 2018 年 8 月 1 日發出，最後版本於 2018 年 9 月 9 日上載)

Brief profile of SON-TINH | 山神小檔案:

TC signals in Hong Kong 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2018/07/17 (TUE) 02:40 HKT	ESE 770 km	W at 38 km/h	45 km/h (25 knots, TD)
	2018/07/17 (TUE) 16:20 HKT	S 340 km	W at 40 km/h	65 km/h (35 knots, TS)
	2018/07/18 (WED) 09:40 HKT*	SW 680 km	W at 30 km/h	65 km/h (35 knots, TS)
	2018/07/23 (MON) 15:40 HKT	WSW 450 km	N Slowly	55 km/h (30 knots, TD)
	2018/07/24 (TUE) 10:40 HKT	W 440 km	NW at 18 km/h	45 km/h (25 knots, TD)

*The Strong Monsoon Signal was issued after the cancellation of the #3 Strong Wind Signal.
*強烈季候風信號於三號強風信號取消後發出。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track with signal information 附有熱帶氣旋警告信號資料的路徑圖:

(Track figure courtesy of Lorenzo. Data from HKO. 鳴謝 Lorenzo 提供路徑圖，資料取自天文台)

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

SON-TINH is the second system to necessitate tropical cyclone warning signals in Hong Kong this year.

SON-TINH developed within an active intertropical convergence zone in mid-July. The JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on July 14 suggesting possible development east of the Luzon Strait. The alert was reissued the next day and the system was upgraded into tropical depression 11W that night. Due to a deep-layered subtropical ridge in China, 11W was expected to move quickly westwards across northern South China Sea towards Hainan Island.

11W gathered more convections on July 16 and crossed the Luzon Strait that night. Further strengthening took place in the morning of July 17, prompting the JMA to upgrade 11W into a tropical storm and name it SON-TINH. Affected by the aforementioned subtropical ridge, SON-TINH travelled across the South China Sea with a speed of around 40 km/h, reaching the south of Hong Kong within a mere 12 hours. SON-TINH's core developed during the night and convections were seen wrapping tightly around its centre.

SON-TINH made landfall at Wanning, Hainan just before 5 am July 18 as a tropical storm. It weakened somewhat on land, but it moved so quickly that the effect of land interaction was minimal. SON-TINH emerged into the Gulf of Tonkin later that morning and decelerated during the day. It intensified again and made another landfall at northern Vietnam in the small hours of July 19.

SON-TINH weakened into an area of low pressure later on July 19. As the subtropical ridge weakened and an equatorial ridge developed, SON-TINH's remnants ceased to move westwards and showed signs of turning east on July 20. Meanwhile, an active southwesterly airstream was fuelling the remnants with a continuous supply of moisture, so that the system did not dissipate on land. This scenario was predicted by most numerical models and the system moved back into the Gulf of Tonkin on July 21. A brief tropical cyclone formation alert was issued by the JTWC in the afternoon, before the system was upgraded into tropical depression status that night.

It was interesting to note that the JTWC continued to track the system after its initial landfall at Vietnam, and thus retained the designation 11W when the cyclone re-entered the Gulf. Other agencies, however, generally considered it a new system at that time*. This includes the Hong Kong Observatory which upgraded the system into a tropical depression at 3 am July 22. 11W was initially moving southeast and then turned to the east under the influence of an equatorial anticyclone. Its convections expanded during the day and the JTWC even upgraded it into a tropical storm that afternoon.

According to Chinese authorities, 11W made landfall at Dongfang, Hainan near 7 pm July 22. It turned northeast on land and was tracking very close to the sea during the night. The storm crossed the Qionghai Strait and made yet another landfall in Xuwen, Guangdong near 10 am July 23. It seemed to stagnate after landfall, but its circulation centre became harder to track over time due to the continued land erosion of its structure.

11W finally turned northwest and then due west on July 24, moving into Guangxi. It weakened into an area of low pressure later that day.

* Eventually, the JMA did not upgrade 11W back to tropical storm status. This avoided the potential conflict in naming across agencies.

山神是本年度第二個引致香港需要發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的系統。

7 月中，山神於活躍的熱帶輻合帶中形成。聯合颱風警報中心於 14 日發出熱帶氣旋形成警報，表示呂宋海峽以東有氣旋可能發展。該警報於翌日更新，系統於當晚被升格為熱帶低氣壓 11W。受中國的一道深層副熱帶高壓脊帶領，當時預料 11W 會於南海北部快速西移，趨向海南島一帶。

11W 於 16 日發展出更多對流，當晚橫過呂宋海峽。系統於 17 日早上進一步增強，日本氣象廳將其升格為熱帶風暴，並命名為山神。受高壓脊影響，山神於南海以時速約 40 公里的速度前進，不消 12 小時就已到達香港以南。山神的中心晚間有所發展，對流沿中心緊密地轉動。

山神於 18 日 5 時前登陸海南萬寧，強度為熱帶風暴級。山神於陸上稍為減弱，但由於其移速較高，因此地形影響並不大。山神當天早上進入北部灣，日間速度減低。它於海上再次增強，並於 19 日凌晨時份登陸越南北部。

山神於 19 日稍後減弱為低壓區。隨著副熱帶高壓脊減弱而赤道高壓脊增強，山神的殘餘雲帶於 20 日停止西移，並有跡象東轉。與此同時，一股活躍西南氣流為山神的殘餘帶來源源不絕的水氣，令系統不致於陸上消散。數值模式大多能預計此情境的出現，而系統於 21 日再次移入北部灣。聯合颱風警報中心於當日下午短暫發佈熱帶氣旋形成警報後於晚上將其升格為熱帶低氣壓。

值得留意的是聯合颱風警報中心於山神登陸後繼續追蹤其位置及強度資料，因此當它再度進入北部灣時該中心維持其風暴編號 11W。至於其他機構則普遍視 11W 為一新系統*，當中包括於 22 日上午 3 時作出升格的香港天文台。11W 初時向東南移動，之後受赤道高壓脊影響東移。其對流於當天擴展，聯合颱風警報中心更於下午將其升格為熱帶風暴。

根據中國官方機構報導，11W 於 22 日約下午 7 時登陸海南東方市。它於陸上轉向東北移動，整晚維持離洋面不遠的距離。風暴稍後通過瓊州海峽，並於 23 日上午 10 時左右登陸廣東徐聞一帶。11W 登陸後貌似停滯，而隨著風暴於陸上時間增加，它的結構逐漸被侵蝕，環流中心逐步變得模糊。

11W 最終轉向西北方，並於 24 日向偏西移動，移入廣西，其後減弱為一低壓區。

*日本氣象廳最終並未再次升格 11W 為熱帶風暴，亦避免各機構間可能出現的命名衝突。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: (1st approach) 17/7 ● 18/7; (2nd approach) 23/7 ● 24/7
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結：(第一次接近) 17/7 ● 18/7；(第二次接近) 23/7 ● 24/7

(1st approach)

Due to the effect of a low pressure area near Hainan, it was rather windy in Hong Kong prior to SON-TINH's first approach. The HK Observatory issued a special weather alert in the afternoon of July 16, almost right after its upgrade of the system into a tropical depression, to warn the public of this quick-moving system. It issued the #1 Standby Signal at 2:40 am July 17, when SON-TINH was about 770 km east-southeast of Hong Kong. Winds were not particularly strong at this point; the Observatory indicated that the chance of raising the alert by 2 pm was low.

The #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 4:20 pm the same day when SON-TINH was about 340 km south of Hong Kong. A few scattered showers associated with SON-TINH's northern circulation began to affect the territory later that afternoon. The Observatory added that the storm would pass at a distance of around 300 km from Hong Kong in the next couple of hours, but chances for higher signals were not high.

As winds turned from the northeast to the east, winds started to surge near sunset. This was also the result of the arrival of a more intense rainband near 7 pm. Several offshore locations such as Chek Lap Kok, Cheung Chau, Stanley, Tai Mei Tuk, Tap Mun and Waglan Island saw winds strengthening to beyond the strong force threshold early that night. Winds at some locations were heavily dependent on rainbands and turned light again when precipitation ceased.

SON-TINH was closest to Hong Kong near 7 pm July 17, passing at around 340 km to the south. The strongest winds in Hong Kong were generally observed between 10 pm that night and 4 am the next day, during which SON-TINH was receding from the territory. Gales were observed occasionally at Cheung Chau and Tate's Cairn. Showers continued to affect Hong Kong during the night. Winds weakened somewhat as SON-TINH made landfall at Hainan, but generally remained fresh to strong. Seeing this, the Observatory cancelled the #3 Signal at 9:40 am July 18 and issued the Strong Monsoon Signal instead. This approach seems reasonable considering the fact that SON-TINH was almost 700 km from Hong Kong at that time. The Strong Monsoon Signal remained in force until 9 pm that day, when winds had generally weakened to below strong force level. The weather in Hong Kong remained unstable on July 19 to July 20 as convective activities remained active in southern China.

(2nd approach)

Squalls and a few showers affected southwestern Hong Kong on July 22. Winds strengthened gradually on July 23 as 11W tracked across Leizhou Peninsula. Assisted by a rainband, strong force winds were observed at Chek Lap Kok, Cheung Chau, Green Island, Sai Kung, Sha Chau, Stanley, Tap Mun, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island near 3 pm. The Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal again at 3:40 pm that day when 11W was 450 km west-southwest of the territory. However, the effect of the rainband was short-lived, and neither the rain nor the wind was able to sustain through the night. Except for a few occasions, winds were mostly below strong force in the rest of the night. The #1 Signal was cancelled at 10:40 am July 24 when 11W started to take a turn to the west.

(第一次接近)

受當時位於海南的低壓區影響，山神第一次靠近前香港風勢頗大。香港天文台於 7 月 16 日下午、升格山神為熱帶低氣壓後不久發出特別天氣提示，表示此系統移速較高。天文台於 17 日上午 2 時 40 分發出一號戒備信號，當時山神位於香港東南偏東約 770 公里。此時香港風勢不太強，而天文台稍後亦表示下午 2 時前改發更高信號機會不大。

天文台於同日下午 4 時 20 分發出三號強風信號；山神此時已移至香港以南約 340 公里。下午稍後時間，與山神北面環流相關的幾陣驟雨開始影響本港。天文台表示風暴將於未來數小時於距離香港約 300 公里外掠過，改發更高信號機會不大。

隨著風向由東北漸轉偏東，日落時份風勢隨一道較強烈雨帶於下午 7 時靠近本港而加強。部分離岸地區如赤鱲角、長洲、赤柱、大美督、塔門及橫瀾島晚間初段吹強風，而部分地方風勢隨雨帶變化，停雨時風速較低。

山神於 17 日下午 7 時左右最接近香港，於香港以南約 340 公里掠過。本地風勢普遍於下午 10 時至翌日上午 4 時間最為猛烈，當時山神正逐步移離，而長洲及大老山間中吹烈風。晚間驟雨繼續影響本港，而當山神登陸海南後，風勢有所減弱，但仍普遍維持清勁至強風程度。正因為此，天文台於 18 日上午 9 時 40 分取消三號強風信號，改以強烈季候風信號代替。由於山神已移至香港約 700 公里外，此安排較為合理。強烈季候風信號生效至下午 9 時，當時風力已回落至強風以下。由於華南一帶對流活動仍然活躍，7 月 19 至 20 日香港天氣仍不穩定。

(第二次接近)

7 月 22 日本港西南部有幾陣狂風驟雨。隨著 11W 於 7 月 23 日橫過雷州半島，本港風勢於當天逐漸增強。受雨帶影響，赤鱲角、長洲、青洲、西貢、沙洲、赤柱、塔門、大老山及橫瀾島等地於下午 3 時左右吹起強風。天文台於下午 3 時 40 分再度發出一號戒備信號，當時 11W 位於香港西南偏西約 450 公里。可是，該條雨帶的影響時間較為短暫，晚間風勢及雨勢均未能維持。當確認 11W 西轉後，天文台於 24 日上午 10 時 40 分取消一號戒備信號。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - Steering flow map on July 17
圖 1 - 7 月 17 日之駛流場圖

Figure 2 - Forecast track from different official agencies on July 17
圖 2 - 7 月 17 日各官方氣象台之預測路徑

Figure 3 - Wind field analysis at 9:55 pm July 17
圖 3 - 7 月 17 日下午 9 時 55 分之風場掃描圖

Figure 4 - Satellite image of SON-TINH passing south of Hong Kong on July 17
圖 4 - 7 月 17 日山神於香港以南掠過之衛星雲圖

Figure 5 - Satellite image of SON-TINH at peak intensity
圖 5 - 山神於巔峰強度時之衛星雲圖

Figure 6 - Radar images at 4-hour intervals from 4 pm July 17 to midnight July 18
圖 6 - 7 月 17 日下午 4 時至 18 日午夜 12 時每四小時之雷達圖

Figure 7 - Local wind disitribution maps at 4-hour intervals from 4 pm July 17 to noon July 18
圖 7 - 7 月 17 日下午 4 時至 18 日中午 12 時每四小時之本港風勢分布圖

Figure 8 - Wind speed time series at Chek Lap Kok, Cheung Chau, Kowloon Star Ferry Pier and Waglan Island (top to bottom) on July 17 and 18
圖 8 - 赤鱲角、長洲、九龍天星碼頭及橫瀾島 (上至下) 於 7 月 17 至 18 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 9 - JTWC's tropical cyclone formation alert issued on July 21 when 11W was still on land
圖 9 - 7 月 21 日 11W 仍在陸地上，聯合颱風警報中心已對其發出熱帶氣旋形成警報

Figure 10 - Wind field analysis at 10:41 July 22. By that time, 11W had moved back into the Gulf of Tonkin.
圖 10 - 7 月 22 日上午 10 時 41 分之風場掃描圖，顯示 11W 已再度移入北部灣

Figure 11 - Weather map at 2 pm July 22 (top) and satellite image (bottom), showing three active tropical cyclones in eastern and southeastern China coastal areas at that time.
圖 11 - 7 月 22 日下午 2 時之天氣圖 (上) 及衛星雲圖 (下)，顯示當時華東及中國東南沿岸一帶有三股活躍熱帶氣旋

Figure 12 - Radar images at 3-hour intervals from noon to 6 pm July 22. The effect of this rainband was confined to parts of Lantau Island as most of it dissipated while approaching the Pearl River Estuary. A more persistent rainband (not shown) eventually reached Hong Kong the next day and yielded strong force winds at a number of places.
圖 6 - 7 月 22 日中午 12 時至下午 6 時每三小時之雷達圖。由於此雨帶於靠近珠江口時逐漸消散，它只影響大嶼山部分地區。另一條雨帶 (不在此顯示) 翌日終能到達香港並令多區颳起強風

Figure 13 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Sai Kung, Stanley and Waglan Island (top to bottom) on July 23
圖 13 - 長洲、西貢、赤柱及橫瀾島 (上至下) 於 7 月 23 日之風速時間序列圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table only displays the wind speeds concerning SON-TINH's first approach.
下表只顯示山神第一次接近時之風力數據。

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

First passage 第一次接近

Second passage 第二次接近

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by SON-TINH from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

First passage 第一次接近

Second passage 第二次接近

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Sun Sep 08 2024 12:41:22 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 24 2023