NAMTHEUN is expected to move northeast along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the next 12 hours.
預料南川將於未來 12 小時沿副熱帶高壓脊西北部向東北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/2.0/W1.5/24 HRS
NAMTHEUN is degenerating quickly and its low-level circulation centre becomes hard to find. The storm is expected to weaken into an area of low pressure in the Sea of Japan soon.
南川快速減弱,其低層環流中心已變得較難辨認。預料風暴即將於日本海中減弱為低壓區。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
預料南川於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。
Next Update
下次更新
This is the final bulletin on NAMTHEUN.
這是本站對南川的最後一次發佈。
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
N/A 不適用
Past Bulletins (click on the bulletin no. for the contents) 過往報告
(請按發佈編號顯示內容)
NAMTHEUN is now slowly crossing the subtropical ridge axis. It is expected to turn NNE and then NE at an increasing speed along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the next 48 hours.
南川正緩慢橫過副熱帶高壓脊脊線,預料會於未來 48 小時沿該脊西北部向東北偏北轉東北加速移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS
NAMTHEUN's core is becoming loose and the storm is shrinking. With stronger vertical wind shear in the region and its proximity to western Japan, the storm will weaken steadily in the next 48 hours. NAMTHEUN now has a higher chance of weakening into an low pressure area in the Sea of Japan before turning extratropical.
NAMTHEUN briefly intensified into category 3 yesterday, but the storm is now under a weakening trend. At 2 pm, NAMTHEUN was centred about 190 km (110 NM) SSW of Kagoshima.
NAMTHEUN is moving NNW along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. It is expected to move NNW turning to N and cross the ridge axis near t+24, followed by a recurvature to the NNE or NE at an increasing speed.
NAMTHEUN's eye is filling and the weakening trend is clear as seen from JMA's radar images. NAMTHEUN is entering a region with higher vertical wind shear, and its proximity to western Japan will also contribute to its weakening. The storm is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by t+72.
NAMTHEUN is expected to move N or NNW along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. It should cross the ridge axis near t+36, after which a recurvature to the NNE or NE at an increasing speed is expected.
NAMTHEUN's formative eye was not very stable yesterday, but the eye reappeared today and it seems to be deepening over the past 6 hours, leading to the current category 2 assessment. The storm is expected to intensify in the next 12 hours in warm seas with low vertical wind shear. Thereafter, a combination of land interaction, increasing shear and lower sea temperatures will induce a weakening trend. Extratropical transition is expected by t+96.
Tropical disturbance 94W intensified into tropical depression 15W last night. It was upgraded into a tropical storm by the JMA this morning and was named NAMTHEUN. Since then, NAMTHEUN has intensified quickly and is now assessed at severe tropical storm intensity. At 2 pm, NAMTHEUN was centred about 250 km (140 NM) SSE of Okinawa.
NAMTHEUN is currently moving northeast along the northwestern periphery of an equatorial ridge in tropical Pacific. The storm is expected to turn north soon as the subtropical ridge dominates to the east of the storm at higher latitudes. NAMTHEUN is forecast to make landfall in Kyushu two days later, and then turn to the NNE to NE along the periphery of the ridge.
NAMTHEUN has intensified significantly over the past 24 hours, from an area of low pressure to a compact system with tight banding clouds. There appears to be a formative eye over the past few hours, but it will take some time to confirm its status. The storm is in a region with warm seas and low shear, and some intensification is expected in the next 36 hours. Thereafter, a combination of land interaction, increasing shear and lower sea temperatures will induce a weakening trend.